“Endless” rain in the UK was 10 times more likely to cause a climate crisis, study says

The seemingly “endless” rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was 10 times more likely and 20% wetter from human-caused global warming, a study has found.

More than a dozen storms hit the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The rains led to severe flooding, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power outages, travel cancellations and heavy crop and livestock losses.

The level of rain caused by storms would have occurred only once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years due to the 1.2C of global warming achieved in recent years. Unless fossil fuel burning is stopped quickly and global temperatures reach 2C in the next decade or two, such wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed.

Experts behind the study warned that work to protect the UK and Irish population was still “severely lacking” and poor and vulnerable people were hardest hit. For example, dehumidifiers provided to dry out flooded homes were not used by some due to high energy costs, while others could not afford to replace frozen food losses after storms cut power.

The analysis, carried out by climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group, compared how likely and how intense a wet winter was in today’s hot world with how likely it would have been in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapor and therefore produces more rain. Hundreds of “attribution studies” have shown how global warming is already accumulating extreme weather, such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts and storms around the world.

“Seemingly endless rainfall this autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland had noticeable impacts,” said Dr Mark McCarthy, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office and part of the WWA team. “In the future we can expect further growth – which is why it is so important for us to adapt to our changing climate and become more resilient.”

Dr Sarah Kew, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and also part of the WWA team, said: “The UK and Ireland face a wetter, wetter and moldier future due to climate change. Until the world reduces emissions to net zero, the climate will continue to warm and rainfall in the UK and Ireland will continue to increase.

The study included storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk and Isha, which were among the most damaging. A separate analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that arable crop losses in the UK due to heavy rain alone would cost farmers around £1.2bn, compared to average production over the past decade. Vegetable growers would suffer further losses.

Dr Ellie Murtagh, UK head of climate adaptation at the British Red Cross, said: “We know that floods have a devastating impact on people’s lives. Its effects can be felt for months and years afterwards.”

She said storms and floods had caused UK weather-related home insurance claims to rise by more than a third, reaching a record £573m in claims. One in seven people don’t have insurance, with many saying they can’t afford it.

UK ministers have been criticized for years for failing to make adequate plans to protect people from the impacts of global warming. In July, the government’s latest climate adaptation plan was condemned as “too weak” by experts.

“The level of implementation of adaptation interventions is still very lacking,” said Murtagh. “Independent evaluations in the UK and Ireland have highlighted the lack of progress.”

Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, said: “To put it bluntly, climate change is already making life worse. Wetter winters are flooding farms, canceling football games, overflowing sewage systems and [making] more expensive groceries.

“Thankfully, we know the solutions. Replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner and cheaper renewable energy sources; insulate houses and restore nature. All this will make life cheaper and better for everyone, not more expensive.”